Tropical Weather Outlook

 
NHC Atlantic Outlook
Tue, 16 Oct 2018 17:28:10 GMT

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Atlantic 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days has now moved inland over southern Belize
and eastern Guatemala. Due to land interaction, tropical cyclone
formation associated with this system is no longer expected in the
Atlantic basin. The southern portion of this disturbance is forecast
to move into the eastern North Pacific by this evening. Gusty winds
will still be possible over portions of Belize and the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and early evening. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Stewart



NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook
Tue, 16 Oct 2018 17:55:11 GMT

Eastern North Pacific 2-Day Graphical Outlook Image
Eastern North Pacific 5-Day Graphical Outlook Image


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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

1. A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity. Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart